[Purpose/significance] The concept of the overall national security gives a new connotation to the construction of national governance capacity. Therefore, exploring the national intelligence estimate system under the concept of the overall national security can provide important reference for the establishment of an efficient, rational and adaptive national security governance system. [Method/process] On the basis of clarifying and defining the connotation and function of national intelligence estimate system, this paper analyzed the necessity of national intelligence estimate system according to the concept of the overall national security, and systematically analyzed theoretical and institutional support and development requirements of the overall national security. [Result/conclusion] This study proposes an analytical framework of national intelligence estimate system, which includes three aspects:logical starting point, composition logic and operation mechanism. Based on this framework, the basic logical rules and specific working mechanism of national intelligence estimate system can be explained.

[Purpose/significance] An in-depth study of the influencing factors and generalization mode of national intelligence estimates in the United States will help to make national intelligence lead and serve national security, and promote the modernization of national security governance system. [Method/process] Based on the theory of policy process and related research, this study constructed a theoretical framework from four dimensions of "estimate principle", "estimate problem", "estimate idea" and "estimate report", and introduced 20 cases of national intelligence estimates in the United States, with the help of qualitative comparative analysis, to discuss the influencing factors and generalization model. [Result/conclusion] The research shows that the American national intelligence estimates are the result of a combination of multiple factors. On this basis, three modes of national intelligence estimates are generalized:non organizational mode, politicized mode and collaborative mode.

[Purpose/significance] The National Intelligence Estimates is regarded as the most formal and the highest level of strategic analysis product in the U.S. intelligence community. An in-depth study of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making can help to improve the scientific decision-making system in China and greatly benefit the modernization of the national governance system. [Method/process] Based on the multiple-stream theory and cognitive psychology, this paper constructed the influence mechanism model of national intelligence estimates and decision-making from the perspective of suggestion adoption, and analyzed the cases of Britain, the United States and other countries with the help of fsQCA method. [Result/conclusion] The study shows that interest proposition and coordination are the only necessary conditions for the adoption of national intelligence evaluation results, and reveals three conditions combination paths of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making under emergency and non-emergency events.