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Multiple-pattern Analysis and Prediction of Topic Evolution Path Based on Topic Correlation: A Case Study of Information Science Research
Received date: 2016-04-28
Revised date: 2016-06-24
Online published: 2016-07-05
[Purpose/significance] Based on the topic correlation, this paper made a detailed analysis on the phenomenon and process of topic convergence or transformation, detected the interdisciplinary topics and their cross modality, and generalized the topics' evolution trend and multiple patterns of evolution path.[Method/process] Firstly, high frequency keywords of information science papers were selected to generate a co-word matrix, which was transferred to be loaded into a community detection tool. Then, community evolution graphs and statistics were both used to analyze the topic evolution.[Result/conclusion] On the whole, the topics changed constantly over time, but the core topics remain unchanged. The phenomenon of expansion, contraction and convergence are common; division is rare; emergence and disappearance are moderate. Three specific community evolution traces with relatively stable activity developed clearly throughout the time range, reflecting the three types of core topics' continuity. The evolution paths of the three kinds of core topics present three evolution models, that is sublimation-absorbing, inclusion-iteration, and radiation-promotion. According to the research, the method of multiple-pattern analysis and prediction of topic evolution based on topic correlation, can reveal the evolution patterns of topics in a macro level, and analyze the cross modalities of topics in a micro level. Combining the advantages of both, the method can uncover the inheritance or innovation of topics, and predict the future directions of interdisciplinary topics.
Key words： topic correlation; topic evolution; interdisciplinary; evolution path
Wei Ling , Xu Haiyun , Hu Zhengyin , Dong Kun , Wang Chao , Pang Hongsen . Multiple-pattern Analysis and Prediction of Topic Evolution Path Based on Topic Correlation: A Case Study of Information Science Research[J]. Library and Information Service, 2016 , 60(13) : 71 -81 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2016.13.010
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