Library and Information Service >
Evaluation Indicators System of Technology Forecasting and its Empirical Study Based on the Patent
Received date: 2014-06-11
Revised date: 2014-08-04
Online published: 2014-09-20
Patent has become the most important information source of technological development, and provides technical conditions for technology forecasting. On the basis of the present research, from three aspects of the trend, maturity and evolution direction of technological development and according to the patent indicators, it builds the technology forecasting model and evaluation index system. Then using the patent data of Derwent Innovation Index, it sets an example about solid oxide fuel cell technology for forecasting, to verify the feasibility of the model. The SOFC technology will continue to focus on the improvement of solid electrolyte and sealing material. The result shows that the forecasting model and the evaluation index system have a high degree of feasibility and effectiveness.
Key words： technology forecasting; patent indicator; SOFC; cite space
Hou Jianhua , Zhu Xiaoqing . Evaluation Indicators System of Technology Forecasting and its Empirical Study Based on the Patent[J]. Library and Information Service, 2014 , 58(18) : 77 -82,116 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2014.18.011
[1] 王瑞祥,穆荣平. 从技术预测到技术预见:理论与方法[J]. 世界科学, 2003(4):49-51.
[2] 赵莉晓. 基于专利分析的RFID技术预测和专利战略研究 ——从技术生命周期角度[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2012, 33(11):24-30.
[3] Chen Darzen, Lin Changpin, Mu Hsuan. Technology forecasting via published patent applications and patent grants[J]. Journal of Marine Science and Technology-Taiwan, 2012, 20(4): 345-356.
[4] Ramos T H, Kim H K. Communications in Computer and Information Science[C]//International Conference on Advanced Software Engineering and Its Applications/International Conference on Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity. Jeju, South Korea,2012:1-8.
[5] Jun S H, Park S S, Jang D S. Technology forecasting using matrix map and patent clustering[J]. Industrial Management & Data Systerms, 2012, 112(5): 786-807.
[6] Lee C Y, Cho Y R, Seol H J. A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2012, 79(1): 16-29.
[7] Chen Y H, Chen C Y, Lee S C. Technology forecasting and patent strategy of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies[J]. International Journal Hydrogen Energy, 2011, 36(12): 6957-6969.
[8] Lee S J, Yoon B G, Park Y R. An approach to discovering new technology opportunities: Keyword-based patent map approach[J]. Technovation, 2009, 29(6): 481-497.
[9] 高继平,丁堃. 专利计量指标研究述评[J]. 情报研究, 2011, 55(20): 40-43.
[10] 王凌燕,方曙,季培培. 利用专利文献识别新兴技术主题的技术框架研究[J]. 竞争情报, 2011, 55(18): 74-78.
[11] 吴贵生,王毅. 技术创新管理[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社, 2009.
[12] 历研. 基于专利的技术发展趋势研究[D]. 北京:北京工业大学, 2011.
[13] 王陆. 典型的社会网络分析软件工具及分析方法[J]. 中国电化教育, 2009(4):95-100.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
