收稿日期: 2016-05-19
修回日期: 2016-07-11
网络出版日期: 2016-08-20
Problem Analysis in Delphi Study: Based on 38 Journals Included by CSSCI (2014-2015)
Received date: 2016-05-19
Revised date: 2016-07-11
Online published: 2016-08-20
[目的/意义] 分析德尔菲法在应用中存在的诸多问题，以提高德尔菲法研究结果的有效性。[方法/过程] 对38种CSSCI（2014-2015）来源期刊的100篇德尔菲法应用研究的文献进行实证研究，分析德尔菲法在实际应用过程中存在的7个具体问题：缺乏严格的专家选择标准；预先定义的问题表；专家是否中途退出不明确；停止意见征询的原因不明确；忽略研究过程中的不同意见；把德尔菲法等同于问卷调查法；对德尔菲法研究成果的借鉴没有加以论证。[结果/结论] 德尔菲法在应用中存在着不严谨、不规范的问题，可能导致研究结果不精确，应当遵循方法本身的程序和原则，注重专家意见达成共识过程的每一个步骤，增加研究结果的可信性。
曾照云 , 程晓康 . 德尔菲法应用研究中存在的问题分析——基于38种CSSCI(2014-2015)来源期刊[J]. 图书情报工作, 2016 , 60(16) : 116 -120 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2016.16.014
[Purpose/significance] This paper analyzes the problems in Delphi method applications in order to improve the efficiency of the results of Delphi study.[Method/process] An empirical study is conducted on 100 articles about Delphi method of 38 CSSCI journals (2014-2015), Seven problems in Delphi application is analyzed, including lack of rigorous experts selection criteria, predefining the questionnaire, pseudo-consensus lead by dropout of experts, unidentified causes of stopping collecting opinions, neglecting the disagreements, equating Delphi method with questionnaire method, and lack of justification in the reference of Delphi research findings.[Result/conclusion] Delphi application is less rigorous and lack of standardization. It should follow the procedure and principle of Delphi method and pay attention to every step of the procedure, to improve the reliability of the research results.
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