图书期刊出版种数的灰色预测模型

陈泉

图书情报工作 ›› 2003, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 50-52.

PDF(2698 KB)
PDF(2698 KB)
图书情报工作 ›› 2003, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 50-52.
理论探索

图书期刊出版种数的灰色预测模型

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Gray Estimate Model of Publishing Quantity of Books and Journals

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摘要

利用灰色系统理论建立预测模型,预测未来5年我国图书、期刊的出版情况,并对预测结果进行分析和评价,结果表明:该方法有一定的实用性和科学性;预测应注意模型的应用范围和精度。

Abstract

Accurately estimating the publishing quantity of books and journals can guide the library's literature purchasing. This paper uses the gray system theories to set up a predicting model, and predicts the publishing quantity of books and journals in China in future 5 years. Through the analysis and evaluation of the result, the method's practical and scientific characters are shown. Finally, it is pointed out that the attention should be paid to the model' s application scale and its accuracy during the predication.

关键词

灰色系统 / 预测 / 图书期刊

Key words

gray system / predict / books and journals

引用本文

导出引用
陈泉. 图书期刊出版种数的灰色预测模型[J]. 图书情报工作, 2003, 47(8): 50-52
Chen Quan. Gray Estimate Model of Publishing Quantity of Books and Journals[J]. Library and Information Service, 2003, 47(8): 50-52
中图分类号: G23   

参考文献

[1] 邓聚龙.灰色控制系统.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1985

[2] 郭飞.图书馆外文期刊年订阅种数的预测.图书与情报工作,2000(1):11-12

[3] 中国统计年鉴(2001).北京:中国统计出版社,2001

[4] 沈芳.购书经费大幅增长下的我馆中文图书采购.现代情报,2002(4):95-96


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